No news here, just a observation, Oregon is no longer a contender for the College Football Playoff and while it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility, upsets on an unprecedented scale would need to happen over the next two weekends for the Ducks to be considered for college football’s final four, but need I say…DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH.
With the Ducks out of the running for the playoff, that leaves the Ducks’ best option for the bowl season to be the “Granddaddy of Them All”. The Pac-12 Champion is guaranteed a bid to the Rose Bowl and by locking up the Pac-12 North, the Ducks have a clear way to clinch the conference’s spot in the Rose Bowl which in my book is a fantastic option for a year to end. Almost better than Oregon coming in at number 5, outside looking in and complaining for years to come.
Oregon will face either Utah or USC in the Pac-12 Championship, as USC could still with the Pac-12 South division this weekend with a Colorado win over the Utes. While an upset may seem unlikely, Colorado did just take down Washington this past weekend and was competitive in late October against USC, the team that beat Utah.
Aside from winning the Pac-12 Title, Oregon’s other shot to make the Rose Bowl hinges on Utah making the College Football Playoff. If a Pac-12 team makes the College Football Playoff and the Rose Bowl is not a semifinal game, as is the case this year, the Rose Bowl selects the next best Pac-12 team to play against the Big Ten on New Year’s Day. I say let’s just beat Utah and not leave it to chance.
With Oregon losing to Arizona State, the Pac-12 is no longer guaranteed the top 10 matchup in the conference championship game that would likely have vaulted the Ducks or Utes into the playoff and a case could be made for a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma or an 11-1 Alabama to make the College Football Playoff over a 12-1 Pac-12 Champion Utah.
Another scenario that could potentially come into play if the Ducks beat Oregon State but fall to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game is a New Year’s Six bowl. Depending on how far Oregon falls in the College Football Playoff rankings this Tuesday (14), the Ducks might inch to within the top 12 which would set Oregon up to receiver an at large bid to the Cotton Bowl if Utah does not make the College Football Playoff. It’s an unlikely scenario but depending on where the Ducks sit in the playoff committee’s rankings and if the Ducks are very competitive against Utah, it’s entirely possible.
If the Ducks lose to Utah but don’t make the Rose Bowl or receive an at large bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl, Oregon will most likely fall to the Pac-12’s No. 2 bowl tie-in, the Alamo Bowl. Played on New Year’s Eve this year, the Alamo Bowl would match up the Ducks against the Big 12’s No. 2 team, likely Baylor unless the Bear’s are picked for the at large New Year’s Six Bowl.
If the worst-case scenario happens to Oregon and the Ducks drop three consecutive games against Arizona State, Oregon State, and Utah, that could see the Ducks fall to the Holiday Bowl. It’s unlikely that Oregon would fall further than this, considering they haven’t played in the Holiday Bowl since 2008 and can’t play in this year’s Redbox Bowl because of playing in last year’s game.
In summary, the Ducks can make the Rose Bowl by winning Pac-12 Championship or if Utah makes the College Football Playoff. Oregon has an outside chance at the Cotton Bowl if Utah wins the Pac-12 Title but doesn’t make the College Football Playoff. If Utah wins the Pac-12 Title, doesn’t make the playoff and Oregon doesn’t make the Cotton Bowl, Oregon will likely head to the Alamo Bowl. And if everything goes wrong for Oregon, the Ducks could drop all the way to the Holiday Bowl.
Those are the worst and best case scenarios, I can see from the cheap seats.
